Bubbling up with Helena

The Tony Awards, which honor excellence in Broadway theater, are my favorite night of the year. I have been watching them religiously for years, and this Sunday night will be no exception.

This season was incredibly packed with 21 new musicals opening this season (which began last May). Because of this sheer volume, I will confess that there are several I have yet to see. (I have not seen Illinoise or the Oustsiders, two of this season’s nominees for Best Musical).

With all that said, here are my predicitions for who will win in the Musical categories Sunday night. I will also include who I think should win.

Best Musical

Will Win: Hell’s Kitchen

Should Win: Suffs

Okay, so this one is very tough. I saw Hell’s Kitchen‘s first preview, and I was blown away by the sheer talent on that stage. The dancing, singing, and acting creating a visual and emotional experience I haven’t forgotten in the months since. I could easily see this one going to The Oustiders though, which I so want to see!

I did love Hell’s Kitchen, but Suffs was my favorite show of the season, bar none. Suffs tells the story of the end of the suffrage movement in the United States, and it moved me as very few musicals ever have.

Best Revival of a Musical

Will Win: Merrily We Roll Along

Should Win: Merrily We Roll Along

QI am one of those theater nerds who has loved Merrily for a long time. This production is simply a masterpiece that redeems a piece that is one of musical theater’s most famous flops. The three leads – Jonathan Groff, Lindsay Mendez, and Daniel Radcliffe are magical together and a huge part of what finally has made this musical a hit.

Best Choreography

Will Win: Justin Peck, Illinoise

Should Win: Camille A. Brown, Hell’s Kitchen

I haven’t seen Illionoise, but I know that it is a beautiful story told primarily through dance. I’ve seen Peck’s work before, and I feel pretty confident he is going to take this one.

I found the movement in Hell’s Kitchen so exciting and different from the kind of dance usually seen on a Broadway stage. The dancers in Hell’s Kitchen are also absolutely incredible and electrifying, which doesn’t hurt.

Best Direction of a Musical

Will Win: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

Should Win: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

It is no small feat to turn a famous flop into a hit, but Friedman has done just that. Her direction has brought every element of performance and design together in a way that makes the show click and sparkle.

Best Book of a Musical

Will Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

Should Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

I spent most of Suffs in tears, and it was largely because of Taub’s beautiful storytelling. She managed to tell a story than spans decades in a way that feels like she addresses enough detail without making it feel bogged down. The story left me feeling moved and inspired.

Best Original Score Written for the Theater

Will Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

Should Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

This was a weird year for score, with one of the front runners for best musical, Hell’s Kitchen, being ineligible since it uses previously existing Alicia Keys music. Some people think Stereophonic, a play, might take this one, but I think Taub will also get this one. Her score is both funny and poignant. I’ve had “Great American Bitch” and “Keep Marching” stuck in my head since I saw the show two months ago. The Suffs album is also the only one from this season I’ve listened to the whole way through, so do with that what you will.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Will Win: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

Should Win: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

I vividly remember cheering on Groff in 2007 when he was up for the same award for Spring Awakening. His performance as struggling writer turned rich movie producer, Franklin Shepard, is going to finally win him this award. His Frank is cold and calculating, but somehow deeply likable and charming. This award is as close to a lock as you can get for Groff.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Will Win: Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen

Should Win: Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen

Moon is giving a stellar performance as Ali, a teenager based on Alicia’s Keys’ young self. It is not an easy feat to go toe to toe vocally with someone like Shoshana Bean, but Moon does it with seeming ease. They are effervescent on that stage, and it is hard to take your eyes off her.

Kelli O’Hara gave a heartbreaking performance as a struggling alcoholic in Days of Wine and Roses, and it’s totally possible that O’Hara could end up taking this award home.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Will Win: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

Should Win: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

I’ve loved Radcliffe since 2001, the first time I saw Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone. He has proven himself to be a formidable stage actor. His performance as Charley Kringas, Frank Shepard’s writing partner and friend, is frenetic and engaging. He nails one of musical theater’s most difficult songs, “Franklin Shepard, inc.” Go listen to it on the album. It is perfection.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Will Win: Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along

Should Win: Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along

I’m making a bet here that all three of the Merrily trio are going home with awards on Sunday. One of Merrily’s challenges is that it starts at the dissolution of Frank, Charley, and Mary’s (Mendez’s role) friendship, and it goes backwards to explore what went wrong between them. Mendez nails the bitter alcoholic Mary at the beginning of the show and also makes you believe she is the naïve and innocent teenager the audience sees at the end of the show. I also give her massive credit for doing this beast of a show very pregnant as she is doing right now.

Are you going to watch the Tonys? Let me know what you think!